COT Guide
A practical introduction to the Commitments of Traders report and how to read the Macro Index dashboard.
1. What is the COT Report?
Every week the CFTC (US regulator) requires every large futures participant to report their open positions. This gives traders a transparent, data-driven view into what the largest institutional players are actually positioned — not what analysts speculate. The report is published every Friday at 15:30 EST, covering positions as of the previous Tuesday close.
2. The Three Groups
Corporations, banks and producers who use futures to hedge real business exposure. They have the deepest fundamental knowledge of the markets they operate in and historically hold positions that reflect long-term value rather than short-term price movement.
Hedge funds and managed money. They tend to be trend-followers, building positions as price moves in their favour and reducing them as it reverses.
Retail participants. Generally considered the least informed group in the futures market.
3. The COT Index
Raw net positions have no meaning without historical context. A commercial net of -50,000 tells you nothing unless you know the range of the last 3 years. The COT Index normalises the current net position as a percentile rank within a lookback window.
Ranks current positioning within the last 6 months — a short-term contextual view.
Ranks positioning within the last 3 years — the broader structural perspective on whether positioning is at a historical extreme.
4. The Strength Indicator
The strength bars visible in the market overview are built on concepts developed by Larry Williams, one of the most respected practitioners of COT-based analysis. Rather than looking at raw positioning levels alone, this indicator measures the direction and momentum of how positioning is changing over time.
One bar — Early movement. Positioning has begun shifting away from a recent extreme for the first time.
Two bars — Developing trend. Sustained directional change in positioning across multiple consecutive weeks.
Three bars — Established trend. Positioning has shifted persistently long enough to carry structural significance.
Green bars indicate commercial positioning building to the long side. Red bars indicate building to the short side. Both the 6M and 36M windows are shown side by side, allowing you to compare short-term momentum against the longer structural trend.
5. The Backtest Feature
Click BACKTEST above the charts on any asset page, select any historical date on the price chart, and the entire dashboard rewinds to that exact week. Use the arrow keys or ‹ › buttons to step through weeks and study how positioning evolved at different points in history.
Disclaimer
Macro Index is an independent data tool for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this platform constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All data is sourced from publicly available CFTC reports and is provided without warranty of accuracy or completeness. Trading financial markets involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions. Macro Index and its operators accept no liability for any losses incurred as a result of information presented on this platform.